To begin with, let’s define the mental constructs that arise in the mind of a sports analyst when he parses the line, the list of upcoming matches. We will give examples from soccer, but all this can be translated to any other sport. There is a clear favorite in the game, he will probably win. Based on this preliminary assumption, the analyst should conduct a more in-depth analysis. Whether you bet on sports using the online platform TonyBet or 9ther resources, keep reading!
Let’s assume that the bettor evaluates the motivation of the teams, the optimality of the lineup, and the playing form in recent matches. If there are no serious contraindications, then consider a bet on victory, minus forfeits, the individual total of the favorite. If there are contraindications that contradict the basic assumption, then such a match is simply skipped and does not make up anything.
Check The Odds
The next step is to check the odds in the bookmaker’s line. For example, for an assumed victory give 1.5. At this stage and includes the assessment of confidence. The player asks himself the question. Are these odds sufficient? A professional bettor may have his mathematical model of calculating the probability, based on the ranking of factors. Some have it less formally, in the form of an estimate based on experience. If there is a model, you can simply translate your own estimated percentage of confidence in a particular outcome into a decimal coefficient, and then compare it with the office offer. If there is no clear model, then the evaluation is at the level of “a lot”, “little”, or “normal”.
Also in assessing the adequacy of the odds to the certainty of the outcome, the conditions of the strategies that the player has chosen are used. Each financial strategy, that gaming strategy, has among the conditions of the algorithm a certain range of odds in which to take bets.
Betting Confidence
It is clear that different types of betting on soccer, involve different ranking of factors. Some will always be common and in their place, and some will fall out or change places, depending on the choice of a particular outcome. A vivid example is the comparison of bets on the main outcome (win the first, draw, win the second) and on the goals of the teams. You can not lose and not score a goal, get a dry score of 0:0. You can win only by scoring at least one goal in the opponent’s goal. At the same time, you can score but go to absolutely any of the three possible main outcomes. You can win 2:1, draw 1:1, or lose 1:3, this is an example. Naturally, to this or the decision to bet, the player is pushed by different factors. In some moments he is more confident, in some less. So the first ones come with a preference and lead to the final decision.
The first and foremost factor in sports betting is motivation. Bettor estimates what tournament goals pursue collectives in a particular match. If there is no motivation or it is dubious, the game in general is discarded immediately, at the first stage of screening. If there is nothing to play for, they may not run or hit. There is nothing to catch. If at least one of the teams needs to win, then you can move on. There are times when both teams need it about equally. Then the game itself is taken into consideration. The advantage of some of the outcomes is looked for based on other parameters. There can be significant biases in motivation. One of the participants in the match may be, as they call it, “needed more”. This can also be used to make a prediction. After all, an incentive to the result is already a lot. Such motivation often outweighs class, skill, and other factors.
Then we look at the strength of the teams. Desire is one thing, but what is the case with the resources to achieve the result is another. If the class of players is there, but chemistry is still lame, and the game does not stick, then such a “paper grand” can lose even the strongest opponent. On the contrary, if a team was nominally an outsider, but at a particular segment of the season has improved, and played well, even without big names in the lineup – this is an incentive to be wary of it, or even to bet, based on it. This is how an analyst forms his impression of a team, based on the combination of the above two definitions.
After the fundamental moments with motivation and strength, they evaluate the style of play of the teams. Do they attack a lot, score a lot, concede a lot? The style of play is assessed. Is it more attacking or defensive? Which line is stronger? From this stage of analysis, in many respects, the decision to consider certain outcomes follows. If there is stability, a trend in the results – look in their direction, if it is more stable with goals – look there. Then there is a more in-depth analysis, based on the field factor. Whether the game is at home or away.